As the European Union prepares to get ready to commence to begin to start negotiating the possibility of Turkey's membership, Ankara's signing of a protocol to extend its customs union to Cyprus has been delayed. The Turkish government insists that its signature will not imply recognition of the Cyprus Republic. Will Turkey ever become a full member of the EU? My prediction is that, even if negotiations go ahead, they will conclude short of full membership.
The new issue of Federations Magazine carries an article by Uwe Leonardy, "A new constitution for Europe — getting closer to federalism?" He argues that the new European constitution's affirmation of the principle of subsidiarity lacks an adequate legal basis and appears to be more rhetorical than substantive.
But of course, since the article was published, the constitution's future is in doubt. Leonardy believes that the EU may need to be creative in considering new ideas for its future:
The creation of a fully federal "United States of Europe" by a core group of countries, and the use of this new state as a nucleus of a less supranational European Union, could be one of those brand new ideas. It could also be an alternative, if the Constitutional Treaty fails to stand the test of the referenda.
Exactly what I and others have been saying all along. Asymmetrical federalism is the wave of the future. Such a Europe will make room for Turkey at the multilateral periphery and not at the fully federal centre.
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